The incarceration rate in Oregon’s prison system is projected to fall 15 percent over the next decade due in large part to sentencing reform.

The projection, done by the Oregon Department of Administrative Services and published Oct. 1, found that recent legislation lowering mandatory minimums for crimes like theft and identity theft is the driving force behind the reduction. The constitutionality of that reform is being reviewed by the Oregon Supreme Court.

“That’s really the sea shift in the last 22 years,” Michael Kennedy, a state economist who authored the forecast, said of the reform. “There was a big move to be harder on crime, and then what we’ve seen in the last 10 years is sort of a moving away from that.”